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Raw material scarcity occurs when demand for natural resources exceeds what the Earth can supply — and 78% of Dutch organizations are already feeling the impact.
Raw materials are the natural resources we use to make products and services possible. These include metals such as iron, copper, and aluminum; minerals such as sand and limestone; fossil fuels such as oil and gas; and biotic materials such as wood, cotton, and rubber. These raw materials form the first link in virtually every production chain, and their availability is under significant pressure. 78% of Dutch organizations are already seeing this reflected in higher costs or longer delivery times.
What are the causes of raw material scarcity?
Demand is rising sharply, driven by economic growth, digitalization, the energy transition, and population growth. The world’s populationcurrently stands at8.3 billion people. By 2050, it is expected to reach 9.7 billion, according to the NOS.
In addition, we tend to use raw materials in a linear fashion. More than 90% of raw materials leave the supply chain as waste after a single use. The result is overflowing landfills, deforestation, ocean pollution, and a growing dependence on increasingly scarce raw materials. Every year, millions of metric tons of plastic end up in the oceans, ecosystems are damaged, and CO2 emissions rise due to overproduction and waste incineration.
Our natural resources are being depleted faster than they can regenerate. This is exactly what Earth Overshoot Day highlights. This year, we have already consumed more resources than the Earth can replenish in an entire year as of July 30. This is the crux of resource scarcity: the demand for resources exceeds what the Earth can provide.
At the same time , the supply chain is becoming more vulnerable. In Europe, we depend on a handful of countries, such as China, for the vast majority of our resources. That dependence is increasingly being used as a geopolitical tool. For example, in 2025, China announced export restrictions on, among other things, rare earth metals, with direct consequences for European production. And even now, the conflict in the Middle East is disrupting the global supply of oil and gas, driving up prices on European energy markets.
What are the consequences for businesses?
The consequences of raw material shortages are already being felt by organizations in both the Netherlands and Belgium. This is evident from a recent survey conducted by Milgro among more than 300 Dutch and more than 200 Belgian organizations. 78% are seeing the effects of raw material shortages in the form of higher costs or longer delivery times, and that percentage continues to grow. In particular, dependence on other countries is a major concern for a large proportion (70%) of respondents. Twenty-eight percent of organizations expect raw material shortages to become the biggest cost factor in the coming years. “Raw material shortages are becoming just as urgent as AI,” says Milgro Managing Director Gijs Derks in an article by Businesswise.
What makes the situation even more vulnerable is that 28% of companies still lack insight into which raw materials are in short supply for their own products. In Belgium, that figure is as high as 41%. Without that insight, you don’t know where your organization is vulnerable or what you can do about it.
What can your company do to address raw material scarcity?
Raw material scarcity calls for a different way of looking at supply chains. In the BusinessWise article, Gijs Derks cites a clear example from the agricultural sector. “In the biological cycle, we’ve long seen that waste streams are given new value elsewhere. Farmers understood centuries ago that you have to keep raw materials within a system to ensure the soil remains productive.” Globalization has changed this. Just think back to those days. The farmer sat next to the baker, and by-products naturally found a new purpose. “Actually, we were much more circular back then than we are now,” Gijs points out.
It’s important to gain insight into which raw materials are scarce for your organization. In doing so, companies typically focus on scarcity and price. But supply chain and processing risks are just as critical to business continuity and reputation: what route does the material flow take, and how much certainty do you have about what happens to it afterward?
In our research report, we explore in greater detail how to manage raw material scarcity. It includes three steps you can take immediately to reduce your dependence on scarce raw materials, as well as real-world examples of how other organizations have already addressed this issue and what you can learn from them.
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Raw material scarcity will become as urgent as AI
Download the free research report and discover how your organization can reduce its dependency.
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